So, the market is down 555 points, almost 5 percent. Yet so far this is no October Black Monday, like when the market dropped 13 percent on October 28th, 1929 or when it dropped 22% on October 19, 1987. (Note: Things are moving fast, market down more than another 100 points since I started writing).
This is, in many ways, even worse – just another Gray Monday, where we get the continued, orderly drip-drip-drip of a market with no confidence, and no idea of where we are headed.
Did you know in the Great Depression the market fell 89% from its 1929 peak? And that it took us three years to get there? I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen now. The world is very different. The genesis of this crisis is very different (whether that’s good or bad, who knows?). But it’s something to consider. I think we’re headed toward that panic sell-off … but we’re not there yet, and even if we have it, I don’t expect to get the immediate recovery we got in 1987.
Things will likely get worse before they get better. Good people will suffer. But to complain seems rather silly when so many people around the world have much bigger problems. As far as I know, I’m healthy. My family is healthy. i have so much love in my life. I know how I’m going to find my next meal. I live in a country where I can speak my mind, and vote my conscience.
Yes, even on Gray Mondays, life goes on. I walked my dog in Central Park this afternoon and the sun was still shining. It was a beautiful early fall day, and I enjoyed every moment, watching my cocker spaniel search for any bits of food left by careless picnickers and chase squirrels he’ll never catch and wouldn’t know what to do with even if he did.
This election both presidential candidates have been tossing out words like Hope and Change as if they were cheap plastic political buttons, offering very few specifics about how we are going to get out of this mess. But Hope and Change are powerful concepts, and if applied correctly can help people get through tough times.
Today, I’d like to add one more:
Gratitude.
i am still reading, but i have a question (which i could research myself but you may know already so it would save me the trouble)– how long did it take to get back the 3 years worth of gains lost in the great depression?
hey bob, thanks for reading. according to wikipedia, “the Dow did not return to pre-1929 levels until late 1954 and was lower at its July 8, 1932 level than it had been since the 1800s.”
Sobering, eh? On the other hand, after today’s losses, we’ll have already have about a decade where the market has done basically nothing … so you gotta hope at some point buyers will step in …
Wow, it’s great to know that sometimes, even at the bleakest of times, a person is able to look at the bright side of life. Maybe you did pick up a bit of your fathers genes (other than your love of sports) after all. I also want you to know that your recent blogs on the economy and the bailout have been great and have reinforced and satisfactorily verbalized my own feelings about what’s going on. Keep up the good work. I love it.
Dad
the silver lining in the gray clouds, very nice. well its much appreciated, but i hate to point out that its only illustrative of your very own thesis – not enough fear to create a real bottom. if the first stage of the looming troubled market is denial and the second anger, the third of course is acceptance, and it seems your post is right there. it is of course a necessary step, but i wonder if you’ll maintain your healthy perspective when stage four of fear begins. will you (or any of us) still be able to write about sunny days and gratitude? perhaps we should all return to todays blog entry in 6 months to determine how much gratitude we truly feel?
fair point, anonymous. as you know from my posts, i don’t think we’re anywhere near a real bottom, and as someone who makes his living on wall street, i could certainly imagine things getting a lot worse for me (and/or the city and/or the country).
But my point doesn’t have much to do with the market – you’re right, I do think we need to see more fear there before i get convinced we’re seeing anything more than a short-term respite – but as long as I have my health, my family, my girlfriend, my dog, etc. I am quite sure that there will still be plenty of things to be thankful for. That’s not to say I’ll always remember it, so coming back to this entry in 6 months sounds like a fine idea
…
This afternoon I alternated between whimpering and stressing about heart palpitations. Am I in stage 4? Are at the bottom yet? Good God Man!!! I don’t even have a dog – but if I did I’m sure he would have escaped my apartment this afternoon to prowl the streets in search of a more stable best friend.
keep the faith martin! Right now, this market has everyone feeling like they once had a huge lead in a poker tourney and their opponent was down to almost nothing, and you had him all-in and his hand totally dominated, and somehow, he managed to catch miracle out after miracle out in what has to be the greatest consecutive streak of suck-outs imaginable … (Yes, for all those who may be wondering, this is a private joke.)