Archive for December 20th, 2008

Let’s Get (A Real) Physical …

Earlier this week, I went to my doctor to get a physical.

What a joke.

Nurse came in, took some blood and, because I have a heart condition, administered an electrocardiogram (EKG). After a few minutes, doctor entered, looked in my ears and mouth, listened to me breathe for a bit, asked me a few questions about my general health and the back/leg pain I was experiencing last time I saw her, and then sent me on my way to deposit some urine and check out. All in all, it took less than 25 minutes from the time I entered the doctor’s office to the time I paid my rather exorbitant $35 co-pay, and that’s including the waiting time.

Sometime early next week, I will get the results back from my blood and urine tests, and the numbers will all likely come back within the ‘normal’ ranges, suggesting I am the rather healthy 35-year-old male I appear to be.

But the question will remain, am I really healthy??

I firmly believe we will one day soon regard the current diagnostic procedures and preventative methods of our health system as incredibly rudimentary and insufficient. I mean, people tend to get their cars checked out with much greater detail and frequency than they do their own bodies. Airlines inspect their airplanes after every flight, and the most we do is get a doctor to take a quick look-see at us every so often (and maybe get the occasional mammogram or colonoscopy when we get a lot older)?

It makes no sense. The no. 1 killer in the world is cardiovascular disease, and cancer is expected to overtake the top spot by 2010, according to the World Health Organization. In both diseases, early diagnosis is an extremely important factor in determining whether treatment is successful, and yet symptoms often don’t appear until it is too late. How many people have you known or heard about who seemed perfectly healthy, only to find out later they suffered a heart attack or developed late-stage cancer?

We spend billions and billions of dollars every year on cures and medicines for all sorts of diseases, many of which end up being ineffective … when an earlier diagnosis would often result in much simpler, cheaper and more effective treatment options.

If only we could develop a safe way to comprehensively examine our internal systems on a regular basis, to see if tumors are spreading, arteries are clogging, etc.

Oh but wait! We pretty much have done just that…

Magnetic Resonance Imaging machines, or MRIs, actually do take detailed, accurate pictures of a person’s entire insides. Unlike X-Rays or CT scans, which use radiation to complete a similar function, MRIs are generally considered safe (if a bit difficult to endure for anyone who’s even slightly claustrophobic). Yet despite the MRI’s impressive capabilities, they are still only used after symptoms present themselves and even then with some reluctance because of their high cost.

Around a decade ago, private clinics started popping up all over this country, offering full-body scans using either CT or MRI technologies. Given Americans’ obsession with fighting aging and staying fit, you’d think these clinics would have done quite well. Yet they started going out of business almost immediately, thanks in large part to the high cost of the machines (several million dollars) and the uninsurable exams ($600 to $3000), as well as some extensive negative lobbying by traditional health care providers, including an HMO industry that was likely very worried they would one day be asked to reimburse patients for these tests.

The full-body scans were unnecessary and dangerous, most health-care experts argued, saying that in addition to the radiation of the CT scans, the tests can’t accurately diagnose all diseases, resulting in a lot of false negatives as well as false positives.

False negatives can certainly lead to unhelpful patient complacency, but since cost is what drives almost every medical decision nowadays, I’m guessing it is the false positives and all the subsequent expensive and invasive follow-up tests that most disturb the insurance companies.

But meanwhile, the technology in an MRI machine has since gotten a good deal more powerful and effective. Could it be that the early diagnosis of treatable diseases would end up saving the health industry money in the long run?? Has anyone done a detailed study on that cost/benefit equation?? And what, exactly, is the ‘cost’ of a life, anyway? Shouldn’t that matter??

A German university did a study a few years back where they gave full-body MRIs to 298 ‘healthy’ patients and found something ‘relevant’ in 169 cases, 75% of which were confirmed by follow-up exams. Among the problems discovered included twelve colonic polyps, nine pulmonary lesions, and two previously undiscovered heart attacks. Twenty-one percent of the patients demonstrated atherosclerotic disease, while 12 percent had peripheral vascular disease.

Only one false positive was found in the study. And yet the researchers still concluded that full-body MRI scans ‘should not be performed outside of a research setting due to the uncertainty of whether the benefits outweigh the risks.’

Like I said, what a joke.

What goes up, must go down …

I believe in balance. In yin and yang. I believe in cycles. In symmetry. I believe big wild parties end with big, nasty hangovers. I believe that what goes up, must come down.

Unfortunately, our government does not agree.

I have railed time and time again on this blog about the scattershot and shortsighted nature of our economic response so far to the current financial crisis. In short, and with few exceptions, said strategy has consisted of spending as much money as possible to bailout and stimulate every sick, depressed segment of our economy, with a particular focus on those segments that cater to the rich and connected.

The policies of the incoming Obama team will only accelerate this process, albeit with a more tilted and welcomed focus on some of the not-as-rich-or-connected folks. There is talk of a new $1 trillion stimulus package being created early in the Obama presidency.

The Fed is fully aboard the stimulus party as well, yesterday slashing the fed funds target rate to basically zero and committing to buying mortgage assets to ensure long-term borrowing rates move lower in an attempt to stabilize and boost the housing market. There is even talk that the government will FIX interest rates at a certain level to ensure they accomplish that goal, though for now it appears the mortgage market is responding to the unprecedented stimuli.

Look, no one likes to see suffering. People out of work, going bankrupt. Home prices falling. Factories closing. Cities failing. It’s nasty, nasty stuff. For politicians, it tends to lead their own unemployment. And for economists, it’s a scary scenario as well, because it almost always results in deflation, a pernicious problem that tends to have long, strong roots once it sets in.

But did the Fed or government do anything when times were so good, when the price of housing was soaring to the moon and consumers were levering up to the hilt and taking on dangerous levels of debt???? Aside from nominal increases in interest rates, I don’t remember any concerted effort, and certainly nothing approaching the desperation we’ve seen recently, to try and tame the animal spirits and gently guide the economy into a soft landing.

In my opinion, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t have bubbles without crash landings. We have stemmed the worst of the credit crunch and liquidity crisis – interest rates have fallen, banks are lending a bit again (at least to each other). It is now time to let the market work its way through this mess and find its equilibrium level. Yes, it will likely overshoot on the downside, just like it did on the way up. Yes, it may take longer to find that equilibrium level than we’d like. But you gotta take the yin with the yang.

I’m not saying we should sit on our hands and watch helplessly as the economy craters. By all means, spend money to reinvest in our roads and infrastructure; on new technologies, including alternative energy; on education, including the retraining of displaced workers; on strengthening the country’s safety net to ensure that those hit hardest from the economic collateral damage don’t suffer unduly.

But realize that all this profligacy will have consequences down the road. We are already staring down the barrel of the worst demographic situation in decades – as the baby boomer generation is getting ready to retire en masse, placing a huge burden on this country’s resources as they move from being net producers to net consumers.

When times were better and tax revenues were flush, our government did nothing to reduce our budget deficit in any meaningful way or address long-term systemic issues threatening the economic health of our nation, like Social Security and Medicare. Yet it now has no problem dramatically increasing our country’s burdens and obligations in order to try and avoid the bad end of the business cycle.

The only thing all this spending will do is take away the oomph from any subsequent recovery. We’ll see a weaker dollar, higher inflation, bigger deficits, and higher taxes down the road. At least some, and maybe a lot of this money will be misplaced, leading to bubbles and wasted investments in other unforeseen areas.

But frankly, the prospect that most of this stimulus will be wasted, a misguided attempt to set an artificial floor on the economy, is actually not the worst-case scenario (though it is the most likely). My biggest concern is that the stimulus works too well and our animal spirits are revived before they’ve had a sufficient chance to reset. If that happens, we’d only be setting ourselves up for a bigger, more painful crash down the road.