Posts Tagged 'AIG'

Obama’s Too Big to Fail Rules Too Late to Matter

The AP has posted an article detailing Obama’s new regulatory plan that would if enacted impose serious penalties on financial institutions when they get too large.

Although there aren’t many specifics in the article about what those disincentives would be or exactly how the government would define ‘too big’, this is a much-needed step back on the road to financial sobriety. We should never as an economy or a country be held hostage to the failings of one single entity.

As deeply as I hated all of the bailouts we’ve been throwing around to woefully (borderline criminally, in my opinion) mismanaged institutions like Citigroup and AIG, I do believe their balance sheets may have been so enormous, their footprints and obligations so intertwined in the world economy, that their failure could have crippled the entire foundation of our credit-based system and brought it to its knees.

Yet don’t be fooled – our problems didn’t lie with any one or two entities, but with the entire system. What we had instead was a complete failure by the market as a whole – and even more damning, by the regulators in charge of watching those markets – to recognize the emerging credit/debt/mortgage bubbles whose eventual bursting forced this country to its day of reckoning.

A law breaking up large financial institutions or disincentivizing them from forming in the first place will help make future problems easier to spot and solve, perhaps, but it won’t by itself save us from our own worst behavior.

And it will do very little if anything to impact our current situation and economic crisis.

In fact, the most ironic thing about the Obama plan is that the entity which may now be most accurately considered ‘too big to fail’ is our own U.S. government, which through actions taken by the Fed and the Treasury has taken on much of the bad debt and obligations (and added a bunch of new ones) that will be stifling our economy for years to come.

We can only hope that the Chinese and other foreign governments continue to agree that the U.S. government is indeed too big to fail and allow us the time to work through our issues and restore some amount of fiscal and monetary discipline without cutting off their support in one fell swoop.

Eliot Spitzer: A thoughtful voice of reason (alas, without any power)

In a recent interview with CNN,  former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer gave detailed, thoughtful, reasoned insights into a whole host of recent topics related to our financial crisis, including AIG bonuses, Obama’s performance, the media’s impact, regulation, etc.

I recommend the 20-minute Fareed Zakaria interview in its entirety, but if you only have limited time, Spitzer offers a concise explanation into the cause of our current economic situation for a few minutes starting at about the 10:45 mark (I have attached that portion of the video below.

No matter what you think of his personality (I always thought he seemed like an arrogant, hypocritical jerk) or the personal indiscretions that caused his ultimate demise (to me, it should have been a matter between him and his family and THAT’S ALL), Spitzer unquestionably took a harder, more probing look at Wall Street and its practices than anybody else who was in a position of power during that time. If we had had more Spitzers running around, then perhaps we would have addressed our problems earlier and avoided some of the pain we are experiencing.

Private-public partnership proposal poses plenty of problems

Oh goody. Looks like we’re about to hear the details of Geithner’s long-awaited financial stability plan, which has as one of its key components a public-private investment pool designed to help rid our system of the toxic assets rotting away on bank balance sheets.

Apparently, the Treasury will hire four or five private investment managers to run a fund that will purchase the assets. The government will then match whatever monies the private firms manage to raise and invest.

Sounds simple enough on the surface, but is it just me, or do bad things generally happen when government and the private sector get into bed together?

What often ends up occurring is one of two things:

1) The private companies – because they get all sorts of government breaks and incentives, including in many cases the assumption of losses should really big disaster strike – end up making decisions that do not properly assess risks vs. rewards, resulting in ultimate failure, whereupon the government must become more fully involved anyway. It’s exactly the kind of privatizing profits, socializing losses phenomenon we’ve seen with the current crisis. And it’s the taxpayer who gets screwed.

2) OR, public policy concerns get in the way of maximizing profits, and the government feels like it must step in to protect the interests of the American populace. In this case, the private enterprises get screwed, and are either forced to alter their investment strategy in inefficient ways or watch as their investments or ‘outsized’ gains get confiscated in one manner or another.

We saw both 1 and 2 when it came to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac disasters, and watching the AIG fiasco unravel is like watching the same story over and over again.

Though your ideology may affect the way you ultimately view the AIG situation – either management knows the company is too big too fail so they are not spending the taxpayers resources wisely, or the government is being forced by public outrage to get involved in company decisions that would be better left to management – we should clearly have done one of two things: Let the company fail and allow the private markets to work its destructive magic (and risk systemic collapse as its unpaid obligations filter through) or fully take the company over and end this charade that AIG is still a private entity. Anything would likely be better than this half-assed, want-it-both-ways solution we currently are trying.

In most cases, public-private partnerships are just clever ways to try and remove large obligations off the balance sheet of the American government (but merely postpone the costs), and justified under the guise that private industry can do things cheaper and more effectively.

I’m sure there are instances where public-private partnerships have been successful (if you know of any, please let me know in the comment section), but when the goals of the two entities are ultimately so different – one wants to maximize profit, the other wants to address some sort of nonprofit-based public policy goal – it’s no surprise the end result often ends up being a disaster.

Look, I know I’m doing the very thing I’ve been complaining about: Criticizing the new administration without giving its agenda or policies a chance (hell, in this case, I’m criticizing without even seeing the plan!).

Obama & Co. inherited this giant, sticky, complicated financial mess and are trying to be creative about fixing it without making our government go broke. There are no easy answers, and I frankly don’t know what the alternatives are. But the idea that we’re employing the same basic strategy that helped get us into this crisis strikes me as very unwise, to say the least.

The Congress AIG Bonus Bill: Bravo! (Seriously…)

Great. Now there’s a backlash to the backlash to the AIG bonuses, and everyone is scolding Congress for acting so rashly in crafting a bill designed to recover 90% of the bonuses in taxes.

Conservatives are complaining the bill is unconstitutional and unproductive. In his Obama interview, Jay Leno said he’s frightened about its implications, and dagblog.com’s own Genghis is mocking the effort.

Gimme a break.

Don’t get me wrong. I have plenty of problems with this bill.

I question the constitutionality of the law.

I think targeting bonuses alone is unwise and insufficient. Companies will just get around the law by increasing base salaries, and bonuses in any case are a reasonable compensation incentive, as long as they’re tightly tied to performance at the individual AND corporate level.

I agree that some talented people may be poached by companies not encumbered by the law and that this would put the very institutions we’re trying to rescue even further behind the eight ball.

I worry that banks that aren’t healthy may try to return the TARP money as soon as possible, undermining the main purpose of the program in the first place – keeping the banks well capitalized and the credit flowing.

However, I think all of these potential issues aren’t nearly as concerning as the critics would have you believe.

I’m no lawyer or Constitutional expert, but I do believe the bill of attainder issue has been at least somewhat addressed by broadening the law to include bonuses paid by any bank receiving a certain amount of TARP money. At a minimum, the answer doesn’t appear clear-cut and deciding questions of legislative constitutionality is one of the reasons why we have the court system anyway.

While I’d rather have Congress devise a broader, much more considerate compensation bill, I’m not going to cry that banks which are receiving significant sums of taxpayer money in order to stay solvent are severely limited in their ability to pay out bonuses to people already making a very good living (the bill only targets households with income greater than $250,000). When these banks are healthy and making a profit again, they can return the money and institute whatever compensation policies they want.

In terms of top talent leaving banks targeted by the bill, I think this concern has been wildly exaggerated. The financial industry has been decimated; unemployment in the sector is very high and even some very talented capable individuals are out of work and available should any talent be poached. Besides, you gotta find it laughable that we are worried about these ‘best and the brightest’, since it was in large part these very same folks with their fancy financial alchemy that created the monster which finally broke our system. Perhaps a thorough management cleansing at some of these companies would ultimately be helpful.

I also largely dismiss concerns regarding the unintended consequences of incentivizing banks to return the TARP money too quickly. If banks are healthy, we want them to return the TARP money as soon as possible. If banks are not healthy, and still attempt to return the TARP money, the government can stop them. Government regulation requires a certain amount of capitalization, and the stress tests will hopefully further separate the healthy institutions from the sick ones.

In short, I am glad Congress is moving in haste on this issue, even if in practical terms the AIG bonuses are chicken feed and any legislation addressing them will do very little in terms of getting us out of our current mess.

Would it have been so much better had we used force of law to stop AIG from giving out the bonuses n the first place? Absolutely, and if Geithner or others did not act forcefully enough to make that happen, I hope they are taken to task for that failure.

Do I hope our legislators take the time to craft a meaningful, defensible bill that minimizes any negative unintended consequences? Of course. Now that the first tranche of bonuses have already been paid out, and it will be up to the government to get the money back, it only makes sense to do this right.

But symbolism matters, and if we plan on continuing this practice of doling out hundreds of billions of dollars to companies in need, we have to show that this kind of behavior won’t be tolerated. It’s our money, and we have a right to say how it is used.

If in the process, we begin talking about how our culture of excess and misaligned compensation policies led to an unhealthy focus on short-term profit and an imbalance in dangerous risk-taking, then all the better.

The dagbuzz for 3/17/09: Zombie Banks and Executive Suicides

Iowa Republican Senator Charles Grassley yesterday went on the radio and suggested AIG executives do what their Japanese peers often do when the proverbial shit hits the fan and either “resign or go commit suicide.”

Easy to dismiss the senator’s remark as loony-toony and disturbing, but hell, we’re basically following the Japanese blueprint to dealing ineffectively with economic crises anyway. I obviously don’t think suggesting suicide is a helpful plan, but wouldn’t it be nice for once to see American executives demonstrate a little bit of shame and take some personal responsibility for the destruction they’ve wrought?

Image: Sen. Grassley: AIG Execs Should 'Resign or Go Commit Suicide'

Sen. Grassley: AIG Execs Should ‘Resign or Go Commit Suicide’

AIG Chief on Bonuses: Our ‘Hands are Tied…’ SAY WHAT?!?

Apparently, $175 billion doesn’t buy what it used to.

AIG has decided that it has no choice but to pay out $165 million in bonuses to employees due to contractual obligations. And the government has decided it has no legal recourse to stop the payments.

To make matters even worse, AIG CEO Edward Liddy has the gall to ask the government to reconsider limitations on executive compensation, saying that such limits curtail the company’s ability to “attract and retain the best and brightest talent to lead and staff the AIG businesses.”

Are you kidding me?

First of all, the fact that AIG agreed to contracts where they would have to pay out these kind of bonuses in a year the company lost $99 billion ($61.7 billion in Q4 alone) is absurd and highlights the ridiculousness of the typical executive contract structure. Reform is needed now and responsiblity must start with the board of directors.

Secondly, the idea that AIG had no choice but to pay out these funds is laughable. AIG lawyers said the company would be subject to lawsuit if the bonuses weren’t paid. Now I’m no lawyer, but I say if an executive wants to sue the company because he or she didn’t get a bonus, then bring it on. Even if the legal argument is sound, the public outrage would be enormous. Plus, at least they would be the ones fighting to get their money as opposed to the government fighting to get it back.

Third, the US government should absolutely have the right to stop these bonuses. The government is the one that decided the company was too big to fail. If it wasn’t for the government – and the US taxpayer – AIG would have been gone long ago. We own the vast majority of the company. What’s the point of making that kind of investment if we can’t have a say in how to use the $175 billion in taxpayer money we’ve doled out?

One of the reasons this financial crisis is likely to linger for a very long time is that we are so concerned about honoring contractual obligations, especially to holders of debt and credit default insurance. I understand how important the sanctity of the contract is in a capitalist society, and I understand how not honoring certain contracts could trigger a ripple effect that brings down our entire economic system. But this is a crisis of unprecedented proportions and extraordinary measures clearly are called for. Certainly, we can find a way to have companies in the eye of the storm extricate themselves from ludicrous executive contracts.

AIG is the poster child for the reckless, greedy behavior that played a large part in getting us into this current mess.

We must set an example.

The bonuses are a fucking outrage.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has a chance to prove that he is not the impotent, incompetent clown I think he is by stopping this debacle from happening.

The dagbuzz for 3/2/09: (Abuse, Co-Dependency and Fear of Change)

Today, I discuss codependent, abusive relationships, and our general resistance to change. Deadman understands the deal. He, too, just wants to relive the good old days and focus on things that will always stay the same, like the Middle East conflict.

Image: Chris Brown And Rihanna: Back Together For No Good Reason

Chris Brown And Rihanna: Back Together For No Good Reason

Image: Obama will sign spending bill despite earmarks      (AP)

Obama will sign spending bill despite earmarks (AP)

Image: US takes another crack at AIG rescue

US takes another crack at AIG rescue

Image: Clinton Pledges Gaza Aid

Clinton Pledges Gaza Aid

ENOUGH!!! …

I’ve had it.

This country has been on engorging on a cheap credit binge for the last decade, stuffing itself on the sugar highs and empty calories provided by ultra-low interest rates and fancy derivatives and zero-down mortgages. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and everyone is looking for a way to get their butt saved.

It’s bad enough that Congress already spent $150 billion earlier this year on a fiscal stimulus plan that did nothing but allow us to buy IPhones and XBoxes for a few more months. The American people now want more, and it looks like Congress is going to give it to us with another huge stimulus package. It’s money we can’t afford right now and which won’t do anything but provide another very temporary boost to an economy and consumer that needs to retrench for an extended period of time before they can begin to reflate.

But spending money one doesn’t have is the American way. Just ask the country’s beleaguered homeowners now drowning under onerous interest payments, the folks who were too busy picking out Ikea furniture to read the fine print of those adjustable-rate, no-doc mortgages they were signing.  They, too, are soon going to get plenty of help from our friends in Washington.

You see, everyone says we need housing to rebound in order for the economy to recover, so by god, we are going to make the housing market rebound, even if it means the government has to buy up all those nasty little mortgages and restructure them, as Senator John McCain has so magnanimously offered to do (and to hell with the free market and the natural laws of supply and demand).

But really, who could possibly blame the American people for wanting to be spared the pain of an economic downturn?? They’re just following the lead of our most esteemed industry and financial leaders and watching with green eyes as the government tosses around hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars like so much loose change.

How fitting that the first ones at the government trough were the Wall Street pigs who cooked up this unhealthy smorgasbord slop and fed it to the ravenous, greedy (but mostly unsuspecting) crowd of American consumers.

Oh, it may seem unseemly that the ones largely responsible for creating this mess would be the first to come begging for help, but The Powers That Be knew the financial system that Wall Street had so cleverly manufactured was so fragile that many of these banks couldn’t fail. They knew that the pyramid scheme would have to be unraveled slowly or the entire economy would shut down.

So in order to prevent exposing the rot in the system to the public, regulators forced Bear Stearns into the hands of the relatively well-capitalized JP Morgan Chase, guaranteed the losses with a $29 billion loan and then lowered interest rates in an emergency session.

But that was just the start. You know the rest of the story. The scope of the problems became obvious, and it was clear the cancer had metastasized to every corner of our financial system. Housing in particular was a disaster, so we nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which should never have been privatized in the first place, as one of the only things scarier than capitalism gone mad, is capitalism with implicit government backing gone mad ).

AIG, too, needed help since it had gotten caught insuring a lot of these failing institutions, so we rescued that firm with $85 billion (and then watched as some of that promised money was immediately spent on a lovely sales retreat, replete with a $23,000 spa bill).

And yet all that government assistance still wasn’t enough, so the Treasury and the Fed went to Congress and pleaded for another $700 billion, and only after getting that pork-laden package passed have they begun figuring out exactly how they are going to use that money to save our banking system and economy.

It is all just so very frightening, but the last straw for me was reading an article about some of those poor, poor folks in the hedge fund industry who are now hoping they’ll also see some of that bailout money. Treasury Secretary Paulson insists the money is just for banks and thrifts, but that ‘plans could change’.

You’ve got to be kidding me!!

I mean, for crying out loud, it was only a decade ago when the government and a bunch of banks bailed out a hedge fund company named (ironically enough) Long-Term Capital Management.

Long-Term Capital, with its use of insane leverage (at least 25x) in highly illiquid, poorly regulated financial instruments, including some of the very same derivatives and mortgage-backed securities that are now causing us grief, was in many ways Version 1. 0 of the current Wall Street mess. And yet we ultimately learned very few lessons from that clear early warning sign (This Working Group document has some great background on the LTCM debacle as well as a number of generally ignored conclusions and recommendations).

Frankly, we missed a golden opportunity to increase supervision and disclosure requirements to help rein in some of the industry’s excesses.

Even worse, the LTCM bailout (and the subsequent lowering of interest rates by then-Fed Chairman Easy Al Greenspan) helped fan the flames and foster the environment that we now find ourselves in by encouraging more ill-advised risk taking while institutionalizing the idea that the government will always be there to cover up for our mistakes.

But there is a price to be paid for that largess. Eventually, we’re going to have to pay for this misguided philosophy. I’m just worried that it’s too late, that we’ve dug ourselves into a hole so deep it will take a generation or more to climb out of.

So it’s time to stop the capital injections and bailout plans, the incessant pumping of liquidity into the markets and the careless printing of money, the debt issuance and the interest rate cuts. We’ve done enough to unfreeze the markets and prevent a systemic collapse. It’s time to let the brutally effective corrective mechanisms of capitalism take care of the rest.

As Obama said during the most stirring moment in his Denver keynote convention speech:

‘Enough!’

Teach your children well …

Many people want to know how this country got into its current economic mess. The news this weekend that some of Wall Street’s biggest, most prestigious financial institutions (Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG) are failing and need to be rescued will raise many more questions.

Of course, the full story is quite complicated, but one of the main drivers behind the current problems is the housing crisis, and the fact that these institutions allowed many homeowners to take on way more debt than they could handle.

Many observers have pointed out that a lot of the blame lies with the consumers who took on that debt. While I definitely believe in personal responsibility, I also believe the vast majority of those people did not receive adequate or entirely truthful explanations about what they were signing and had little idea of what they were getting into.

And that, at least in part, is a failing of our educational system.

I mean, why don’t high schools teach personal finance? It should be a mandatory requirement for a degree. If I were a school administrator or involved in curriculum development, that would be one of the first changes I’d make.

Young people are taught how to bake cakes and sew pillows in home economics, how to build clocks in shop class, how to carry a tune in music class, how to do a layup in gym class, but for some reason they are rarely if ever taught the finer details of balancing budgets, investing in stocks and bonds, saving for retirement, managing debt, etc.

As a journalist covering the markets and now as an investment professional, I can’t begin to tell you how few people know Thing One about managing their money. These are the people who invested most or all of their savings in dot-com stocks, or bought real estate they couldn’t really afford, or signed up for and then maxxed out their limit on multiple credit cards.

Even many of the folks who aren’t facing imminent crises have very little idea of where they stand financially or how to prepare for their future.

It’s not their fault. This is not intuitive stuff. It has to be taught, and the earlier the better.

Maybe there’s hope. This week, I spent a couple of hours on the phone trying to explain a few things about the stock market to the 10-year-old son of a high school friend of mine. He was competing in an investing contest for an after-school honors program.

Those kind of contests can obviously teach some bad investing habits, but at least they get kids thinking about the subject matter while making it somewhat exciting. That’s not an easy thing to do, but it’s important to try.

In the meantime, we bend over backwards to bail out the financial institutions that failed us, while allowing the consumers who were never taught any better to suffer the full consequences of their ignorance.

That kind of cold-hearted, bottom-line thinking is – for better or worse – the nature of capitalism, and it’s perhaps one other fact of life we also ought to teach our children about. Maybe that would get them to pay attention.