Posts Tagged 'obama'



Questions: Stimulate Me

OK, so Obama’s tough talking apparently worked.

The administration got three moderate Republican senators to agree to support the stimulus package and prevent a filibuster. In return, some $100 billion in spending from the package was removed while some Republican proposals for tax cuts and credits were adopted (most notably a $15,000 credit for homebuyers).

Of course, the compromise has pissed off some politicians on the left, but likely not enough to jeopardize a Yea vote.  The bill will pass the Senate soon, and then move to a committee where the House and Senate will negotiate on the final bill.

I just spent about an hour or so scanning through the revised stimulus bill, all 736 pages, and there’s plenty of good news (assuming you like the idea of the government spending $827 billion to try and stimulate the economy).

Despite the compromises, this is still clearly a Democratic bill. While there is certainly a fair amount of money going to the military and national security, the biggest sums are reserved for the areas that most liberals care about – education, health care, environment and green technology development, public housing and the homeless, public transit and other infrastructure.

For me, the good news is that the bill is pretty explicit about how the government will track the effectiveness of the money being spent, including the creation of a consumer-facing Web site that will have great detail on every dollar (aside from potential national security issues).

This is all hugely important because if I were someone without scruples, I’d be reading through this bill and just thinking about all the ways I could get my share of what could easily become a fraud-ridden boondoggle.

So what’s the questions part of this column, you ask?

Well, I am going to list below two (or more) of the programs or projects that are currently slated to receive more than $1 billion in government money, and I want you to tell me which one you think is more important and why? Any you’d get rid of?? (This is not a comprehensive list of the billion-dollar initiatives, and there were literally dozens more falling just short of ten figures).

1) $1.2 billion for aviation security vs. $1.2 billion for youth activities (incl. summer employment, state grants) vs $1.5 bln for state and local law enforcement?

2) $9 billion for federal building funds (including $6 bln to make them green) vs $9 billion for broadband expansion initiatives vs $8.4 bln for public transit?

3) $1 billion for dislocated worker training vs $1 billion for Head Start?

4) $1,35 billion for the National institute of Health vs. $1.2 billion for research at the National Science Foundation?

5) $13.5 billion for special education programs vs $13.869 in student financial assistance vs. $13.0 bln for elementary and Secondary Act of 1965 (incl. school improvement)?

6) $17.5 billion for CDC screening and immunization vs. $14.398 for renewable energy development?

7) $2 billion for advanced battery grants (incl. vehicles) vs. $2 billion for high-speed rail corridor program?

8)$2.25 billion for redevelopment of abandoned/foreclosed housing vs. $1.5 bln for homeless prevention?

9) $4.5 bln for electricity delivery and energy reliability vs $5.5 for surface transportation (i.e. highway/bridges) vs. $5 billion for health information technology investments?

10) $1 bln for nuclear weapons program vs. $1 bln for prisons?

The Daily Buzz (An Experiment in Multimedia)

Ok, so I am totally going to risk extreme personal embarrassment by doing this, but I decided to experiment with a little video rundown of some of the day’s top stories as indicated by Yahoo Buzz!, which is a Digg-like service at http://buzz.yahoo.com. I basically put on my Unabomber/Deadman outfit, recap the top articles that interested me, and throw in a little commentary for good measure.

As you will quickly see, it is totally off-the-cuff with no script so frankly, it’s not that professional (Alas, I do have another job that pays the bills so I have to throw it up there, warts and all). But I have to admit, it was fun to do so if people like watching it, I may keep doing it. Be happy to take any of your suggestions for improvement (I know the glare of the sunglasses is distracting, but I’m not yet ready to totally drop my anonymity yet).

Here are the stories I run down: (The video is underneath)

Obama calls stimulus bill delay ‘inexcusable’ (AP)

Simpson Gets Into Bizarre Crying Fit At Concert

Christian Bale Apologizes for F-Word Filled Tirade

Christian Bale Apologizes for F-Word Filled Tirade

USA Swimming Suspends Phelps for Three Months

USA Swimming Suspends Phelps for Three Months

Stimulus vs. Spending and the need for Recessions

Over on dagblog, one of our writers DF posted an interesting post on the latest drama in our economic crisis called ‘Macroeconomics 101: Spending versus Stimulus, or ‘How I learned to stop worrying and love recession.” It basically discussed how silly some of the recent political commentary has been, particularly the claim by many Republican lawmakers that Obama’s stimulus package was full of programs that would do little to stimulate the economy. This is my response. I encourage everyone to read DF’s original post as there is also a fair amount of continued dialogue in the comment section.

So DF did a stellar job of getting to the heart of our economic crisis and the current debate over Obama’s planned stimulus package and spelling it out simply and effectively. I do, however, have some issues with his thesis.

Unlike DF, I believe there IS a difference between stimulus and pure spending, although where and how you draw that line is admittedly a subjective process. Stimulus is government spending that then encourages corporations and/or individuals to spend money of their own as well. Government spending by itself will certainly add to GDP, but without a stimulative component, it will have very little notable impact (the Consumer ‘C’ in GDP is almost 2/3ds of the total in the US) and certainly will be unlikely to reverse a recession.

Now you can have a legitimate debate about what types of policies are more stimulative than others, and that’s where things get subjective (for instance, giving people money, or tax refunds, would seem by its nature to be stimulative but that stimulus package last year ended up being nothing more than an ineffective short-term stopgap with most of the money going to shore up corroded balance sheets – not the worst thing in the world but not very stimulative).

And where I really disagree with you is that you seem to think government is in a better position to spend than consumers or corporations. With consumers, maybe you could argue the point, given how badly household balance sheets have gotten, but aside from the financial industry, corporate balance sheets are actually in very good health and they could probably invest a lot more capital in the system if they had confidence (and arguably lower tax rates).

Of course, any significant corporate investment also requires a free flowing credit system, which has been dramatically impaired because of our financial crisis. Resolving our toxic asset problem is at least as important as the passage of any stimulus package because not only would it allow credit to flow again (although hopefully in a more rational manner) it would also restore a bit of the confidence that is a necessary prerequisite for any lasting spending by consumers OR corporations.

But getting back to the government and its ability to help us spend our way out of this mess …. they’re in the worst shape of anybody to do the work! Obviously, the government CAN spend the money since they control the printing press, but that won’t mean it’s a good idea. At $1.2 trillion dollars (prior to any stimulus plan being passed), this year’s U.S. deficit alone equates to over $4000 per person in this country, and that exceeds the average credit card household debt of $3,235 (which you can easily argue is too high as well).

Increasing the deficit will only place a bigger burden on this country’s future generations – at some point, guess what, the Chinese and other foreign governments will stop wanting our debt because they’ll wake up and notice the crappy state of the balance sheet, and at that point, you will see and feel pain like you’ve never experienced.

If we are spending money on things that are needed, like long-decaying infrastructure or intriguing alternative energy technologies, then perhaps the additional onus on the country’s balance sheet will make sense. But I am very skeptical that we’ll be able to spend $800 billion without seeing much of it going to waste.

I guess when you get down to it, I have a problem with your main thesis

First, we all have to agree that a recession is what I’ve stated it is above and that this is an undesirable condition in which we all have a vested interest of avoiding.

Recessions are necessary parts of the free market business cycle. Sure, we’d love to avoid or shorten them, but it’s my belief that without them you can’t have the good times. The key in my opinion is to pursue policies and regulations that limit the extremes on both sides of the cycles, but unfortunately, we threw ourselves one big consumption and credit orgy over the past decade, and we must pay the piper.

We need to be very careful we don’t throw good money after bad, and make the problem even worse by sapping oomph from any eventual recovery or setting us up for a bigger, more painful fall later.

MOFT: Episode 7 (Well, duh…)

Can there be any question as to what My One Favorite Thing this week was? Could it be any more obvious?? I mean, clearly, it was Rick Warren’s Invocation Speech. Duh. What a beautiful testimonial to the goodness of god, the power of prayer and the righteousness of Scripture!

Ok, ok, i keeeed. i keeeed. MOFT of the week was obviously the Inauguration of Barack Hussein Obama, which more than two million people witnessed in person, and another 38 million people saw on the telly. It was a glorious event, and nothing – not a less-than-perfect handling of crowd control and seating, not a bungled recitation of the oath of office, not an inaugural speech that lacked the fancy rhetoric and beautiful poetry of some of Obama’s best performances, not another sickening 5%-plus stock market decline, and not even the presence of one anti-gay reverend could dampen the meaning and importance of last Tuesday.

The hard part for Obama and for the rest of America is still to come. The president is not just trying to lower expectations when he talks of the difficulties this country is facing. They are serious, and they are numerous. And there are no guarantees for success. Obama may be intelligent and well-spoken, flexible and principled – qualities sorely lacking in the White House these last eight years – but the questions of his competence and capabilities won’t be answered for some time. We should keep a watchful eye on his performance, and guard against the kind of blind loyalty and lack of reflection many on the other side fell victim to in recent years.

But last Tuesday, for the first time in a long time, it made sense to hope that better times are ahead. It made sense to hope that America could be all that it once was and more – productive, respected, compassionate, true to its most hallowed ideals – for we now have a leader who seems up to the enormous tasks at hand.

For one day, at least, hope felt like it was more than just an empty word, more than just a campaign slogan. It felt real. Tangible. Something you could hold onto. And for one day, at least, that was more than enough reason to smile.

Obama’s Inaugural Address : The (Almost) Line-by-line review

A friend of mine asked me on Facebook what I thought of Obama’s speech yesterday, and I told him my initial reaction was ‘ho-hum.’ It did a good job of listing the challenges we face as a nation and world, and of calling us to action. I thought its foreign policy section was particularly strong. But the address by itself didn’t move me much on an emotional level, and I certainly didn’t think it had any of those memorable, JFK-worthy turns of phrases that would be quoted fifty years down the road.

Yet, I decided to reread the transcript again to see if I missed anything. As I kind of expected, it was better the second time around. I thought there was a more cohesive theme centered around responsibility, both individual and societal, than I remember getting from listening to the speech. I still think it lacked some emotional heft, and I still don’t see those quotable lines that will stand the test of time, but overall, it was well-constructed.

I hereby offer my (almost) line-by-line review:

————————————————

My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.

It’s a good beginning, with that three-phrase construction (humbled, grateful, mindful) that all good speeches, and Obama’s in particular, use so effectively. This will be the only time we hear W’s name, but he throws some pointed daggers at the former (how good does that sound!) president for his policies later in the speech.

Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because we the people have remained faithful to the ideals of our forebears, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

When I first heard the speech, I thought the phrase ‘Gathering clouds and raging storms’ was a bit too much. Don’t gathering clouds precede raging storms? If he is specifically talking about this time, and not just generally, then i think gathering clouds would have been sufficient. As bad as things are today, they’ve certainly been worse in our history. Inflation under 5%, unemployment under 8%, no terrorist attack on our soil since 9/11. Part of my issue with government’s response to the current economic crisis is we are throwing trillions of dollars at a problem which we don’t yet fully understand and which likely will need time to get resolved no matter how much stimulus we throw at it. Economies go through cycles…it’s par for the course. Overreacting, at the expense of any fiscal restraint, would be unwise.

The same is true with our foreign policy situation. Islamic fundamentalism is a very real threat. But overstating the threat, and thereby overreacting and overreaching with our strategies, only leads us to engage in intractable and irrelevant conflicts which can often end up making matters worse.

These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land — a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America — they will be met.

This is to me seems like a lost chance for one of those memorable lines. ‘But know this, America – they will be met’ won’t cut it. Meeting challenges just doesn’t sound that impressive (‘How do you do, Challenge? My name is Barack.’)

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

‘The time has come to set aside childish things’ is a good line, though Obama can’t take credit for it. The rest of the paragraph is just full of cliched platitudes.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted — for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things — some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

All well and good, but what’s wrong with preferring leisure 8) (That’s just me pursuing ‘my full measure of happiness!”) And “the makers of things”? Really?!?

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.

For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.

Another three-pack of repetitive phrasing. This one works well.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

“Worked till their hands were raw” is one of the cliched phrases that Obama sometimes overuses. Struggled and sacrificed would have sufficed.

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

I really do hope we are ready to stop putting off unpleasant decisions, as I do feel that is one of the major reasons we are in the current crisis. But I’m not sure I’ve heard anything yet from Obama to suggest those are forthcoming.

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act — not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. All this we will do.

One of his best paragraphs. It’s the call to action paragraph and there are some rather specific goals he is setting out here – some doable, some probably not, all important.

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions — who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them — that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works — whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. Those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account — to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day — because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Just like it takes two to tango in an argument, it takes two to let go of an argument. Here he is addressing the concerns of the other side, letting it be known that he will not just be your father’s liberal, but that government will only spend when it can do so wisely and effectively. I hope the other side is similarly willing to let go of those stale political arguments and work toward compromise.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control — and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart — not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

Starts off with another line for the economic conservatives and free-market proponents in the crowd, before laying down the hammer by letting it be known that regulation and income redistribution will not be completely unavoidable. I love the content, even if the wording isn’t very poetic — “depended not just on the size of our GDP, but on the reach of our prosperity” and “nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous” just aren’t very pretty.

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our founding fathers … our found fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake. And so to all the other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

Now this is the shit. It’s poetic, it’s forceful, and it is a direct slap in the face to the arrogance and imperialism of the Bush Doctrine, the Patriot Act, the Iraq war, and all of the other shortsighted foreign policy maneuvers of the old administration.

We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort — even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.

Another common Obama trick. Argue forcefully for one side of an argument – in this case, the quiet retreat from various military entanglements and the militaristic policies of the Bush administration – but then end the thought by throwing a bone to the other side of the spectrum – in this case, a little bit of gonna-kill-the-terrorists macho, jingoistic talk.

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus — and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

Alright! A nod to the non-believers!! But even without that welcome addition, this is a great noble sentiment, if perhaps a bit idealized (there’s still plenty of hatred and division even still in our own country, and the world is a long way away from watching the lines of tribe dissolve and revealing our common humanity.)

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West — know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

A direct nod to the Muslim community, which is pretty smart given how badly our reputation has suffered there over the past eight years. We will never win over the Islamic fundamentalists, but even moderate Muslims have felt understandably threatened by recent American policy. And I don’t buy the argument I’ve heard that Islam is too extreme and violent a religion to ever embrace Western ideals like democracy and liberty. This paragraph also  includes one of his best sentences – “your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.” That one may stick around.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment — a moment that will define a generation — it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

The obligatory salute to American troops. But it’s well-written, tying it into the speech’s larger theme of responsibility, service and sacrifice, with a poetic nod to our own heroic past – “just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages.”

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter’s courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent’s willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

This is where I thought the speech fell flat again. I usually hate it when politicians reference specific individuals, but in this case the examples seem too generic and cliched to really hit home emotionally. The last line in particular seems awkward and disconnected – a fireman battling flames and a parent nurturing a child are too different of concepts to be in the same sentence.

Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence — the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed — why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent Mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

The heart and true purpose of the speech – that the creation of America and its continued greatness has depended upon the solid values and  work ethic of its citizens, and that we must re-embrace those characteristics if are to move ahead again.  “The price and the promise of citizenship” is a sweet phrase. I like the reference to his African father, which makes the theme personal, and subtly brings up the historical significance of the moment without overemphasizing it the point of alienating anyone.

So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

“Let it be told to the future world … that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive…that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet (it).”

If you can’t come up with any memorable quotes of your own, there’s no harm in using the poetry of past leaders, especially when it involves an appropriate metaphor to current circumstances and dovetails in nicely to the meaning you are trying to impart.

America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Thank you. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America.

It’s a solid finish, harkening back to his storm metaphors from the opening lines. I certainly hope that as we work to solve the current problems we face that Obama remembers these words because the future of our children’s children is most certainly in jeopardy.

Questions: The Inaugural Edition

OK, so I didn’t find a way to scrounge up an Inauguration ticket. I’m certainly not going to spend one of the most beautiful weeks in recent memory being bitter. Over at dagblog.com, A-man and the Big O are at least making me feel like I’m there with their insanely comprehensive coverage (although how about a little more multimedia please!). In the meantime, I’ve been asked to do a special Inauguration version of my Questions column, and I’m happy to do it as part of my own little contribution. Now you need to contribute by answering! (As always, more comments on dagblog.com)

1) I’ve been to the mountaintop and I’ve seen the inevitable references.

Isn’t it awesome that America will officially inaugurate its first black president one day after the country celebrates the birthday of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.? How much credit do you think Dr. King can take for making this inauguration a possibility? Do you think Obama will reference King’s mountaintop speech, i have a dream speech, both or neither in his inaugural address?

2) A well-stocked Cabinet?

Aside from the Clintonites, I’m not too familiar with much of Obama’s cabinet. Which nomination are you most impressed with and why? What about the worst selection (Richardson not an option)?

3) The over/under.

Give me a time estimate, down to the seconds, for the length of Obama’s inauguration speech. Closest to the actual number wins nothing but the mad respect of all the losers.

4) In case Orlando has some free time in DC.

What’s your favorite tourist attraction in Washington D.C.?

5) For the love of god.

Will Rev. Rick Warren utter the word Jesus or Jesus Christ in his inauguration invocation. If so, how many times will he say it? If not, what word or phrase will he utter that will be closest (i.e. savior, Holy Trinity, son of God, the big J.C., etc.)?

6) First line of business.

What will be the first executive order signed by Obama? What about the first bill passed by Congress?

7) I still cannot believe his reign is over.

George W: What do you think will be the first non-vacation(ranch)-related thing of significance he does after leaving office?

8) The pundits.

Whose television coverage of the Inauguration will you be watching the most? Whose opinion of Obama’s inaugural address are you most interested in hearing?

9) It’s never too early to think ahead.

OK, let’s keep thinking big: What will be the next minority or oppressed group to reach the highest office in the land? Hispanic, Jewish, Gay, Female, Asian (I know, I know, I’ve excluded a ton of others) … List them in order of likelihood.

10) Biggest miracle of the week: Black man become POTUS, Passenger plane crashes in river without any fatalities, Cardinals make the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history?

Super Bowl Winner, Final Score and MVP Predictions please. For those of you who don’t care about the game or follow sports, please predict whether Springsteen’s halftime act will suck ass or not.

What goes up, must go down …

I believe in balance. In yin and yang. I believe in cycles. In symmetry. I believe big wild parties end with big, nasty hangovers. I believe that what goes up, must come down.

Unfortunately, our government does not agree.

I have railed time and time again on this blog about the scattershot and shortsighted nature of our economic response so far to the current financial crisis. In short, and with few exceptions, said strategy has consisted of spending as much money as possible to bailout and stimulate every sick, depressed segment of our economy, with a particular focus on those segments that cater to the rich and connected.

The policies of the incoming Obama team will only accelerate this process, albeit with a more tilted and welcomed focus on some of the not-as-rich-or-connected folks. There is talk of a new $1 trillion stimulus package being created early in the Obama presidency.

The Fed is fully aboard the stimulus party as well, yesterday slashing the fed funds target rate to basically zero and committing to buying mortgage assets to ensure long-term borrowing rates move lower in an attempt to stabilize and boost the housing market. There is even talk that the government will FIX interest rates at a certain level to ensure they accomplish that goal, though for now it appears the mortgage market is responding to the unprecedented stimuli.

Look, no one likes to see suffering. People out of work, going bankrupt. Home prices falling. Factories closing. Cities failing. It’s nasty, nasty stuff. For politicians, it tends to lead their own unemployment. And for economists, it’s a scary scenario as well, because it almost always results in deflation, a pernicious problem that tends to have long, strong roots once it sets in.

But did the Fed or government do anything when times were so good, when the price of housing was soaring to the moon and consumers were levering up to the hilt and taking on dangerous levels of debt???? Aside from nominal increases in interest rates, I don’t remember any concerted effort, and certainly nothing approaching the desperation we’ve seen recently, to try and tame the animal spirits and gently guide the economy into a soft landing.

In my opinion, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t have bubbles without crash landings. We have stemmed the worst of the credit crunch and liquidity crisis – interest rates have fallen, banks are lending a bit again (at least to each other). It is now time to let the market work its way through this mess and find its equilibrium level. Yes, it will likely overshoot on the downside, just like it did on the way up. Yes, it may take longer to find that equilibrium level than we’d like. But you gotta take the yin with the yang.

I’m not saying we should sit on our hands and watch helplessly as the economy craters. By all means, spend money to reinvest in our roads and infrastructure; on new technologies, including alternative energy; on education, including the retraining of displaced workers; on strengthening the country’s safety net to ensure that those hit hardest from the economic collateral damage don’t suffer unduly.

But realize that all this profligacy will have consequences down the road. We are already staring down the barrel of the worst demographic situation in decades – as the baby boomer generation is getting ready to retire en masse, placing a huge burden on this country’s resources as they move from being net producers to net consumers.

When times were better and tax revenues were flush, our government did nothing to reduce our budget deficit in any meaningful way or address long-term systemic issues threatening the economic health of our nation, like Social Security and Medicare. Yet it now has no problem dramatically increasing our country’s burdens and obligations in order to try and avoid the bad end of the business cycle.

The only thing all this spending will do is take away the oomph from any subsequent recovery. We’ll see a weaker dollar, higher inflation, bigger deficits, and higher taxes down the road. At least some, and maybe a lot of this money will be misplaced, leading to bubbles and wasted investments in other unforeseen areas.

But frankly, the prospect that most of this stimulus will be wasted, a misguided attempt to set an artificial floor on the economy, is actually not the worst-case scenario (though it is the most likely). My biggest concern is that the stimulus works too well and our animal spirits are revived before they’ve had a sufficient chance to reset. If that happens, we’d only be setting ourselves up for a bigger, more painful crash down the road.

Obama will mean the end of capitalism!!! (Whoops, too late) …

The day after Obama won the election, a Republican friend of mine on Facebook joined a group that planned on getting together on Inauguration Day to mourn ‘The End of Capitalism as We Know It’*.

Members of the group were waxing bitter in the message board, complaining about how Obama was a socialist who was going to destroy the U.S. economy.

I had to laugh … and cry.

Cry because these people were so caught up in their own right-wing economic philosophies (many of which I actually agree with) that they couldn’t even for one moment take the time to appreciate the historical significance of what this country’s voters had just done.

No matter what your politics, every one should be able to do what John McCain eloquently did on election night: Recognize that this country has taken a large, profound step to move past its racist beginnings (and recent history) and elected a candidate that preached unity and bipartisanship and re-engaged vast segments of the American people by inspiring a renewed sense of hope and idealism.

But many of Obama’s opponents don’t even want to give him a fighting chance. They believe he is doomed to fail and his liberal agenda will cause the collapse of the American empire and its glorious capitalist experiment … which is why I also had to laugh when I read those messages.

That experiment has already failed. The empire is already collapsing. Socialism is already here … And it all happened under a Republican administration.

Just today, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson generously let the American people know that after careful deliberation, the $700 billion he asked for from Congress is now going to be put to a vastly different use than was originally intended.

Money that was supposed to be used to buy up bad loans and mortgages rotting away on the balance sheets of banks and gumming up our credit system is now going to be doled out  (in a command-control style, I may add) to buy stakes in troubled banks, as well as potentially help out a number of as-of-yet unspecified companies in as-of-yet unspecified non-financial industries.

(So much for the program’s name: TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program. Calling it the Tits and Ass Relief Program would have made about as much sense).

Mark my words: The cost of this program will end up far exceeding $1 trillion (though we may eventually get some of that money back). And that’s in addition to the hundreds of billions the Fed has already spent trying to buck up our decrepit financial system.

Instead of facing the consequences of a decade-long U.S. consumer spending binge, which was encouraged and exacerbated by a housing/credit bubble caused by our government’s easy money policies, we are flailing around haphazardly, trying anything and everything to bail our way out of this mess. But all we are doing is throwing good money after bad, and leaving future generations of Americans an enormous, crippling pile of debt.

The most egregious example of this will likely be the auto industry bailout that is quickly becoming a political inevitability. Right now, the best I can hope for is that the money comes attached with some sort of regulatory plan and set of conditions. If changes aren’t made to the auto companies’ operating structure (i.e. mainly, a renegotiated contract with the labor unions), they’ll be facing the same dire situation a few months down the road because they just cannot currently compete with the lower-cost manufacturers in Japan and throughout the rest of Asia.

Do I think an auto bailout is a good idea? No way. I’d much rather see GM and Ford be allowed to go bankrupt, and work to restructure their operations through that process, while we spend the money we’ll be using in the bailout to retrain displaced workers and invest in start-ups pursuing new green energy technologies. But I understand millions of jobs are at stake. I understand that the American people would find it hard to understand why Wall Street and the fat cat elites who work there and produce nothing of tangible value got bailed out while the manufacturing engine of the country was left to wither on the vine.

The fact of the matter is, America has never been a purely capitalistic system. We came to grips some time ago that capitalism without safety nets ends up benefiting the few at the expense of the many, and will eventually destroy itself through social instability. That’s why we have Social Security, and welfare, and Medicare, and public schooling and student loan programs, etc. etc.

But it is still quite ironic that the biggest government nationalization and socialist expansion efforts in decades will be coming at the end of a Republican administration that never pursued the fiscal responsibility platform of the conservative movement and is now too afraid to deal with the nasty flip side of the free market policies it espoused.

——————————————–

*I think that was the name of the group – I can’t find it on Facebook any longer … maybe they, too, realized the insanity of their hypothesis

Yo Deadman, please don’t hurt ‘em …

Ring the bell, school’s back in, break it down … Stop. Question time!

10) Ok, several days have passed. Are you still smiling and dancing, or do you find yourself suffering a bit from some sort of post-partum-like depression?

9) Not that I would know anything about this, but which is a more important element of looking good on the dance floor: Rhythm or self-confidence?

8) So I turned 35 this week. Is it lame that one of the things that most annoys me about this age is that I can no longer check off the 18-34 age group in surveys?

7) My awesome girlfriend got me one of those comfy leather recliners for my birthday (we once got in a fight because she said she thought those chairs were ugly and didn’t want one in her apartment while I insisted they were one of man’s god-given rights), and I have now fallen asleep while watching TV on that chair each of the past several nights. Have I become my dad?

6) Why or how did humans evolve so that they crave and demand variety in their meals? Every day, my dog acts like a Democrat who just found out Obama has won the presidency (i.e. like a delirious nut bag) when I take a scoop into his jar of food, even though I’m preparing to give him the exact same crap I always do. It seems like it’d be so much easier and more efficient if we humans could also be content eating the same thing every day.

5) Which is worse: Sarah Palin’s ignorance; the McCain advisers who chose Palin despite her ignorance; or the fact that those same advisers are now just piling on, anonymously leaking to the press more examples of that ignorance and suggesting she torpedoed the campaign?

4) One of the ironies of the election was that the heavy black turnout caused by Obama’s candidacy contributed to the passage of Prop 8 in California, which outlaws gay marriages. Do you believe the civil rights struggle of homosexuals is equivalent to the African-American struggle. If not, what is the difference? (This is not a trick question; I think there can be legitimate debate here, though in the end I personally don’t think there’s a difference.)

3) If you could find out the exact date of your death, but couldn’t do anything to change it, would you want to know? If you found out you were going to die within the next 12 months, what would be the biggest change you’d make in your life?

2) I have plenty of regrets in my life. One of them I remember well is telling a childhood friend in first grade that there was no Santa Claus, which was a really crappy thing to do (especially so cuz I’m Jewish). Do you remember when you first found out there was no Santa Claus and what was your reaction? (My apologies if I have once again spilled the beans and destroyed any delusions you may harbor).

1) Please look at the attached map below. It’s a graphical display of the voting trends in Tuesday’s election compared to 2004. The blue sections are areas where people voted more heavily Democratic; the bluer the section, the bigger the change.

Which of the following facts does this map reveal (Choose all that apply): a) The Republican brand and agenda is dying b) The Democratic brand and agenda is ascending c) Barack Obama was a better candidate than John Kerry or d) Damn, the South is disturbingly full of racists, esp. Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

2208 Voting Trends

Best birthday ever …

I turned 35 at midnight tonight, about the exact same time Obama began his acceptance speech in Chicago. I couldn’t have received a better birthday gift. I will never forget this night. You should have seen the love and camaraderie being displayed in New York, between and among complete strangers who like me just couldn’t stop smiling. If a night like tonight doesn’t make one proud to be an American, and hopeful for the future, I don’t know what could.

Just a quick note to to finish up before I TRY to go to bed tonight (the adrenaline may not let me), I wanted to post one of the more poignant signs I saw tonight, displayed at a Obama rally in New Jersey and shown during one of the local news reports. It read (with a little bit of editing):

Rosa sat,

so Martin could walk,

so Barack could run,

so our children could fly.

I’ll obviously never be able to understand the African-American experience, but I thought that was just beautiful poetry.

Question time …

Happy Halloween all! Last week, I threw out a bunch of questions I had been asking myself lately, and people seemed to enjoy the post, responding with some incredibly wise and insightful, or at least terribly smartass, answers. So, I figured I’d do it again, maybe even make it a weekly thing. Without further ado …

1) Will there be more Jokers or Joe the Plumbers out there tonight? (If you’re answering this and Halloween is already over, reply with the actual answer)

2) Why do parents wait until the last minute to buy Halloween costumes? The costume place by me was absolutely crawling with kids last night, and there was a line to get in the store. Don’t they know it comes the same time every year?

3) If you win a World Series and no one in the world is watching, have you really won a World Series? (No offense, Philly fans, I’m just so happy you out-underrated the 2006 World Series, when my Cardinals won the title and no one seemed to care because a New York and Boston team wasn’t playing)

4) Agree or disagree: Obama’s non-selection of Hillary as VP was one of his best moves of the campaign. I say yes, and not because Biden’s been a big help (I’m a fan but he’s been a neutral at best), but by not picking Hilary, it led McCain straight to Palin’s frigid Alaskan door, and that’s a gift that keeps on giving (They’re now talking about her as a leading candidate in 2012, which boggles the mind but warms the heart)

5) Give me your best guess of the percentages for voter turnout as well as Obama’s popular vote total on Tuesday? I say 64 and 53, respectively.

6) Can you think of any any worse, more terrfiying way to die than in an airplane crash? I’m talking only about relatively common and immediate forms of death, so no death by testicle tickle torture or long terminal illness. Seriously, the idea of having to endure ten or more minutes of being able to do nothing but imagine your imminent death while being surrounded by screaming people and unbelievable turbulence as a 100,000 lb. aircraft hurtles earthward at an accelerating pace, frightens me to no end. But maybe that’s just me.

7) Genghis got me thinking with his W. movie review, what was the last good Oliver Stone movie?

8) When was the last time you listened to music on a terrestrial radio that wasn’t in a car? Talk about a dead medium. And good riddance.

9) It’s not because of radio’s demise, but I feel I’ve stopped learning about good new music. How can I fix that?

10) And finally, shifting to a much more exciting medium, please rank the following positive, life-changing attributes of the Internet in order of greatness:

  1. E-commerce (Amazon, ebay, craigslist)
  2. E-mail and IM
  3. Comparison Shopping and Reviews
  4. Online gaming (social and multimedia)
  5. Facebook. Social Networking and the ability to transcend physical borders
  6. Maps and Step-by-step directions
  7. Free Porn available in any fetish imaginable
  8. Search, Wikipedia and the ability to find almost any piece of info
  9. dagblog.com
  10. Other (List your own piece of Internet enjoyment)

The unspoken fear …

Take a step back from the day-to-day machinations and minutiae of the campaign for a moment. Put aside thoughts about the final stretch of polls and stump speeches and negative advertising and robo-calls and ground games and electoral map hypotheticals, and consider the enormity of what this country appears to be on the brink of doing one week from now: Electing an African-American to the highest office in the land.

Given the history of this nation, it is a remarkable prospect. It is exhilarating. It is almost unbelievable.

And that is why it is also very frightening.

Frightening because as the prospect of an Obama presidency becomes more real, I believe there are many in this country who are so sick and deranged that they would risk their own lives to make sure that doesn’t happen. Even with the best and most comprehensive security force, you cannot convince me that an assassination isn’t a very real possibility. Obama is attracting enormous crowds of tens of thousands of people, which are nearly impossible to totally manage. All it takes is one nut with a semiautomatic to be successful.

I now believe that an assassination is the only thing that will prevent Obama from being inaugurated as President of the United States come next January.

I hope I’m just being overly cautious or neurotic – with my personality, that would be within the realm of possibility – but I think a lot of people are wondering the same thing and just don’t want to express the unmentionable.

Am I wrong to worry??

McCain strikes a pose …

So McCain wants to put politics aside in order to solve the economic crisis …

Feh! Maybe I’m too cynical, but I can’t even imagine a more political tactic.

McCain just gave a speech saying he wants to suspend his political campaign and postpone Friday’s presidential debate until Congress agrees on legislation to solve this crisis.

That’s just silly.

Look, there is some urgency here to get an agreement accomplished. They may be moving more slowly than some would like, but Congress is already doing the work that needs to be done, . They’re asking the hard (and, yes, sometimes silly) questions that should be asked when we’re talking about spending hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out a paralyzed financial system. Compromises on both sides have already been made, and the debate going on now is all a healthy part of the American political system.

I’m sure advisers of both presidential candidates can adequately inform the Senators of the proceedings and keep them abreast of ongoing developments. McCain and Obama, as party leaders engaged in an intense political campaign highlighted by frequent public speeches, already have all the opportunity in the world to help steer debate and policy on this issue (something Obama has done much better than McCain has to this point).

There is just no crushing need for the senators to actually be physically on the Hill.

We may indeed be in a serious economic crisis, one that could get appreciably worse if steps aren’t taken relatively quickly, but this is no 9/11, which McCain referred to in his speech. We haven’t been attacked. No one’s been killed. If we can’t act for a few days or a week or two, it won’t really matter. It’s almost as important that a solution is designed smartly as it is that it is done quickly.

McCain’s insistence that the country’s political cycle needs to be put on pause so that we can address and solve this crisis strikes me as overstating the urgency of the situation.

As such, it also strikes me as an overtly political move by McCain, and maybe even a stall tactic signaling he’s not quite ready for the debate. Of course, even if that’s true, Obama and his campaign can’t even hint at any of those things without sounding petty, so perhaps its also a good political move on McCain’s part.

It ultimately all depends on how the American people view this tactic: As a leadership move that goes beyond politics, or as the worst kind of political grandstanding.

McCain may be the lipstick AND the pig …

A struggling economy. Rising unemployment. A crumbling housing market. Ballooning national debt. Disappearing social security and Medicare funds. Surging energy and food prices. Failing financial institutions. A looming environmental catastrophe. Increasing anti-Americanism. Burgeoning terrorist threats.

This is the reality.

No matter your political party or ideology, these are the issues that matter.

And yet, both political campaigns have chosen to spend a fair amount of money and time this week arguing about the phrase ‘Lipstick on a pig.” It would probably be funny if there weren’t so much at stake in this election.

Obama used the phrase in a recent speech, though it is quite clear from the context that he was using it to refer to McCain and his attempt to call himself an ‘agent of change’ despite the fact that most of his policies are identical to those of the current administration. ‘Lipstick on a pig’ has been used multiple times in the past by numerous politicians, including at least twice by McCain to describe Hilary Clinton’s latest health care plan (The phrase was even the title of a book authored by one of McCain’s former advisers).

The assertion by McCain’s campaign that Obama was calling Palin a pig is ludicrous.

First of all, Obama didn’t even mention Palin’s name anywhere near the statement in question. You have to make quite the leap in logic to assert it was a reference, even an oblique one, to her or the speech she gave at the Republican convention.

More importantly, the insult doesn’t make sense. Palin is a sexy mama. I’m not at all sure about her qualifications to be President of the United States, but if anything, she’s the lipstick here, not the pig.

Personally, I think McCain’s campaign is desperately trying to play the gender card here and it seems so beneath the image and substance of the man. I really believe McCain to be a man of high integrity, and I believed him when he insisted earlier that this campaign would be a respectful one focused on the issues.

Yet, I now have serious doubts. I believe McCain’s trying to take the high road, feigning innocence while everyone around him engages in the kind of sleazy politics the Republicans are so good at and which, unfortunately, seem to work.

In fact, I’m beginning to believe McCain is the real lipstick in this situation, being smeared on the pig of negative politicking. They are using his good name, his heroic past, his maverick reputation, his long and distinguished legislative career, to try and cover up the fact they are using the same old dirty political playbook in order to get elected.

My hunch is that McCain understands exactly what is going on, and has given at the very least his tacit endorsement of the plan.  And if that’s so, then McCain isn’t just the lipstick. He’s the pig, too.

Bullet points …

Been away and not able to update the blog, but a lot has gone on in the past week. i won’t have the time to do a full posting for a few days, so i thought i’d throw out a bunch of quick hits, in chronological order since I began my trip.

  • Obama’s acceptance speech: I liked it much more the second time I heard it. The speech won’t go down as one of his best, much less about inspiring the nation and more about drawing a stark contrast with the opponent, but it was written and delivered flawlessly, with at least a few stirring moments. And cheesy backdrop or no, the atmosphere was indeed electric. He’s a rock star, and that’s a good thing, in my opinion.
  • McCain picks Palin as VP: I was in mid-flight watching CNN when this news came down and my first thought was ‘Who?’ My next thought was ‘Whoa – MILF!’. In general, I think the pick has the chance to totally backfire on McCain, as it’s become quite clear the vetting process was done half-assed at best. But it also was about the only thing McCain could have done to instill even a trace of the excitement the Democrats have generated in the past week.
  • My lesbian (rabbi!) cousin gets married: OK, I think I’m as open-minded as a Midwestern-born boy can be, but even I have to admit it was a bit jarring to see two women in bride dresses walk down the aisle hand in hand. But I will tell you one thing: There was as much or more love and joy during this ceremony than in any other ‘straight’ ceremony I’ve attended. This was indeed something to be celebrated, and it was sooo cool to see the parents of both women embrace and accept what is still seen by many Americans as an abomination.
  • Close call averted: Wow, pretty amazing to think that only a couple of years after Katrina, New Orleans almost got hit again. Great news that the storm ended up sparing the city, but I wanted to strangle Michael Moore, listening to him on MSNBC almost gloat over the fact Gustav was threatening the Republican National Convention. Kind of like Sharon Stone implying that China deserved its  earthquake because of the way the government treats Tibetans. Apparently, it’s not only right-wing nuts like Pat Robertson who believe that God delivers ironic political statements in the form of deadly storms and viruses.
  • If you go to LA, you gotta visit the Getty Center. The art and exhibits are top-notch but the stunning architecture, idyllic setting, and especially the amazing garden make the site an absolute must-see. Even better: Admission to the museum is FREE, aside from the $8 it costs to park.
  • The Republican convention so far: It’s quite fascinating to hear how rarely they mention the economy and how even more rarely they mention George W. Bush — you know, he’s just the Republican who’s been running the country (into the ground) for the past eight years. Pretty illuminating that as soon as Bush’s lackluster, seemingly taped speech ended, the convention moved quickly to a Ronald Reagan video. Ahhh, nostalgia.
  • Palin gave a nasty, snarky, but effective little speech last night. She delivered the talk very well, though I don’t know what that says other than the woman can be effective reading words written by someone else off a teleprompter. But she seemed competent and confident and the clever lines did the trick of bringing Obama down a notch or two. However, the speech didn’t do much to tout a specific Republican vision, and I don’t think the negative, biting tactics will fly this time, not with the country flailing and its citizens searching for serious leadership and big ideas.

Ok, that is all for now. I am sooo looking forward to tomorrow night when McCain gives his speech AND the new NFL season kicks off. great stuff!

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